There is a 2 percent chance that in seven years the "city destroyer" will crash into Earth with the force of an 8-megaton nuclear charge. Asteroid 2024 YR4, with a width of 40 to 100 meters, will pass very close to Earth in December 2032 and may even hit the planet. Because of its size, speed and possibility of collision, it has been nicknamed "City Destroyer" on the Internet.
The major space agencies estimate that there is about a 2 percent chance that 2024 YR4 will hit Earth, although this risk figure will be updated as scientists learn more about the asteroid's trajectory. While it is much more likely that the asteroid will pass by Earth, locations that could be affected by the impact have already been identified.
The destructive potential of 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, velocity, and mass. Since the asteroid is still very far away, these characteristics can only be estimated, so the effects of the impact at this stage can also be predicted with some error.
Astronomers currently believe that 2024 YR4 will create an airburst on impact that will be equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT, 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
This explosion would affect about a 50-kilometer radius around the impact site. Some experts, such as David Rankin, an engineer with NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project, have sketched out a "risk corridor" for the impact site.
According to the asteroid's current path, and if the 2 percent probability becomes reality, the asteroid should fall somewhere in a swath of territory stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and
Africa. Countries at risk will include
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador.
The threat posed by asteroids and comets that could potentially collide with Earth is rated on Torino's 11-point scale: the higher the score, the higher the risk that a flying space object will collide with Earth and cause great destruction. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently at level three, meaning it is large enough and will pass close enough to be observed closely.
However, most international agencies are confident that over time the risk level will drop to zero as the asteroid's trajectory becomes more and more clear. Initially, the probability of impact was 1.2 percent. It was then adjusted to 2.3 percent, and after the latest assessment, the risk dropped to 2 percent.
This is not the first time such an alert has been issued, and 2024 YR4 is not the riskiest space object being monitored. Asteroid Apophis, discovered in 2004, was at times rated higher than 2024 YR4, both on the Torino scale and in terms of collision probability. Shortly after its discovery, it had a 2.7% chance of impacting Earth.
However, a few months later and with improved observations, scientists adjusted their calculations to more realistic values. Now, although it will pass very close to Earth in 2029, the chances of a collision are zero.
In response to the appearance of 2024 YR4, the UN activated an emergency protocol to protect the planet. For the moment, given that the asteroid is at level three on the Torino scale, it is limited to constant monitoring to understand the nature of its motion.
Measures are also being developed to protect the Earth from asteroids with destructive potential. These include kinetic impacts, where rockets are sent into space to collide with asteroids to deflect them from their collision trajectory with Earth. NASA's DART mission in 2023 proved that such impacts can be carried out and move space objects by testing the technique on an innocuous asteroid called
Dimorphos.